The Rahmstorf Method
The so-called "Rahmstorf Method" for predicting accelerated sea level rise has been thoroughly
demolished by a number of other scientists, and by the progression of time. Here are some
- A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise, by Stefan Rahmstorf (2007) [full text], and
Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature, by Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009)
- Tom Moriarty has done careful, in-depth demolitions of Rahmstorf 2007 (here),
and Vermeer & Rahmstorf 2009 (here).
- Where does their figure come from? by Prof. Lucia Liljegren
- Source of fishy odor confirmed: Rahmstorf did change smoothing, by Lucia Liljegren
- The Secret of the Rahmstorf "Non-Linear Trend Line," by Steve McIntyre
- A look back at "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Sea-Level Rise," by Tom Moiarty
- Off The Beaten Path, Part Two: A Scientific Critique of the 2010 NC Sea-Level Rise Assessment Report, by John Droz, Jr.
(skip down to "#12" which begins on p.11)
- Der Spiegel
on Rahmstorf: "Scandal Surrounds German Government Climate Advisor" (also here)
- Rahmstorf is closely connected to Munich Re, the giant German reinsurance company, which has a pecuniary interest in promoting climate alarmism, to justify higher reinsurance rates
- Rahmstorf: is it okay to call him an alarmist, now? by Tom Moriarty
- Rahmstorf v. Rahmstorf, by Tom Moriarty
- and analysis by David Stockwell
- and additional analysis by Steve McIntyre
- and additional analysis by Lucia Liljegren
- and additional analysis by Tom Moriarty
- and Tom Moriarty's library of data for testing robustness of Rahmstorf models
- ...and more (etc.)
"Rahmstorf (2007) presented an approach ... based on a proposed
linear relationship ... We find no such linear relationship. Although we
agree that there is considerable uncertainty in the prediction of future
sea-level rise, this approach does not meaningfully contribute to
quantifying that uncertainty"
Holgate, S., Jevrejeva, S., Woodworth, P., and Brewer, S., 2007.
Comment on A Semi-Empirical Approach to projecting Future Sea-Level Rise,
Science, 317, 1866.
"...this statistical analysis (Rahmstorf, 2007) is based on an
application of statistics ... violating basic assumptions of the
statistical methods used."
Schmith, T., Johansen, S., and Thejll, 2007. Comment on A Semi-Empirical
Approach to projecting Future Sea-Level Rise,
Science, 317, 1866c.
"In hindsight, the averaging period of 11 years that we used in the 2007 Science paper was too short
to determine a robust climate trend..."
[Stefan Rahmstorf's 2009 mea culpa, on the RealClimate blog site]
"It turns out that Rahmstorf has pulled an elaborate practical joke on the Community..."