Every year since 2007 has had more ice than 2007. Our friends describe this as a record low.
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DMI seem to show a step up too.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Does Julienne agree?
AndyDC, no I don’t agree. Steve chose a graph that shows what he wants to portray while ignoring all the other institutions that show either a record low for 2011 or a “tie” with 2007. University of Bremen already announced it is a new record low. In my opinion, given the error margin of the measurement and algorithms, 2007 and 2011 basically tied in their extent this year. NSIDC will likely show 2011 as the second lowest, but again it’s within the error margin (which is about 50,000 sq-km).
Here’s a new site for Arctic sea ice graphs: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/
Julienne,
Your own graph shows the bottom a couple of days ago.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
yep, it’s holding steady at 4.3 the last few days. May still be some contraction in the next few days, but it certainly could be the minimum has been reached. Remember last September though it looked like the minimum had been reached and then it went down further again. So best to be patient a few more days…
20110907 = 4.33
20110908 = 4.30
20110909 = 4.34
20110910 = 4.34
20110911 = 4.34
Last year there was a blast of warm southerly wind in mid-September. This year the NCEP two week forecast is for cold and getting colder.
Stevey — have you ever looked at a graph of Arctic Sea Ice extent since satelite imagery made it possible? Do you know the difference between volume and extent? Who pays you to write such tripe?
Heh, heh. Drewski. Sounds like brewski. Heh, heh. Cool, huh?
Shut your pie-hole, you seat-sniffing paste-eater. 100,000 sperm and you were the fastest?
Mike, you owe me a monitor! Let me steal that and we’ll call it even.
How did I live my whole life and never ever hear that before?
Drewski. Extent is easy to measure. Volume, not so much. Which is more reliable? More importantly, which one does a grant seeking scientist report, including hysterical lies about the Arctic warming at (wait for it) “unprecedented” rates. At least that’s what GISS says, based on no data whatsoever.
Drewski,
No one pays me. Care to bet on whether NSIDC shows an increase in MYI over last September? You seem very confident of your knowledge, and you really should take this bet.
Didn’t you work for SPPI now, Steve?
You’re not going to tell me that you do what you do for free, are you? I’m sure there are many think tanks who would be happy to sponsor you. Morano makes almost a quarter of a million a year, and the quality of his work isn’t much higher than yours, I’d venture to say.
And could you show all the graphs, please? Not just the one with the lowest resolution and the incredibly unrealistic 2008 trend line?
I wrote an article for a small writers fee for SPPI a couple of years ago.
If you know of any think tanks that have money to sponsor me, please let me know.
Which extent graph do you think is below 2007?
Which extent graph do you think is below 2007?
You mean you don’t know? Amazing.
If you know of any think tanks that have money to sponsor me, please let me know.
I think they are very happy to let you do it for free, Steve. More money in their own pockets.
Are you standing on your head?
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Keep looking, Steve. You are the number 1 skeptic Arctic expert. The Recovery Man. You don’t need my help.
And there’s a sea ice area graph that also shows a new record. Have you mentioned it here already?
OMG – the world must be falling apart.
Look for a significant increase in MYI again this year.
OMG – the world must be falling apart.
Not yet, but I’m counting on you to do your utmost to make sure it will.
Look for a significant increase in MYI again this year.
I will. And I hope it’s as thick as it was in the (recent) past.
lol, Steve, it makes one wonder if Drewski and Neven are getting paid their minimum wage to comment here. They just assume everyone gets paid.
Neven, the ice doesn’t have anything to do with anything other than something for alarmists to wet themselves over.
Doesn’t Joe Romm make his money off of the comic book anti-Christ, George Soros? Hasn’t Algore made tens of millions of dollars off of phony “green” investments? Aren’t you a tool who thinks that anyone who is a threat to your cult should be personally attacked?
Hey, I just thought Steve was part of SPPI. Looks like I was wrong.
If he doesn’t get paid for this, he should. Like I said, Morano makes almost 250,000 dollar per year for what he does, which is basically the same as what Steve does.
I can assure you that there is little or no money for skeptics. Your assumptions are erroneous.
Neven, twice in a single thread! You got a source for that “250,000 dollar per year for what he does”? Or is it as well documented as all the AGW alarmist smears? Have you ever blogged about Soros funding? Just asking.
I thought you were one of the careful alarmists aiming for the mainstream. You know, the kind that try to distance themselves from the wholesale smear merchants that make up the AGW cult. The type that trys to be accepted at the Curry and RC websites.
Why exactly do you have such a hard-on for Morano?
And why are you pretending not to know that Steve isn’t making money on this? He only just started with ads this month. I know you were fully aware of this fact before today, why are you playing stupid?
Drebski
Have you ever looked at a graph of ice extent BEFORE satellites?
JAXA showed its first day-to-day net gain for September 2011 between 09/09 and 09/10. This of course doesn’t mean that 09/09 was the minimum, though it is a possibility. My spreadsheet predicts we’ll see another 43680 km^2 of loss, so actually being at the minimum would be a welcome difference. CT’s area metric still hasn’t set another minimum since a few days ago, but it’s so close that there’s a good chance of it, and my spreadsheet says >50% likelihood.
The differences in the metrics is surprising:
Bremen extent already has 2011 as a record low.
CT area has a record low, but just barely and it’s more of a tie.
JAXA area seems to be tying for a record low, though it could end up above.
NSIDC extent was near 2007 but is diverging upward and will likely not approach the record.
JAXA extent is about halfway between the 2007 and 2008 values, very unlikely for a record.
DMI 30% extent minimum is looking to be closer to 2008 than 2007.
NANSEN area is much closer to 2008 than 2007…just barely under 2008.
NANSEN extent is higher for 2008 than 2007…good chance of being above it for the minimum.
Combining all the above on both a daily and monthly basis and I’ll think we’ll end up seeing 2011 as in between 2007 and 2008 overall. Considering the warm winter last winter and the poor weather up through mid July this year, I don’t think that’s unexpected. Arguably, the only good weather we saw the whole time was the end of July/start of August and then maybe the last week or two. However, if the CAGW believers are right, I see no way we won’t crush the record next year.
-Scott
How could you possibly predict what will happen next summer?
Well, if the CAGW believers are right, we have “pancake thin” ice right now. We’ll also be seeing record warmth in the Arctic this winter and next summer. No way we won’t be seeing a record next year if they’re right. Remember, PIOMAS predicts a zero-volume Arctic for at least 1 day in September by 2016 and an ice-free Arctic in the winter by 2030. Clearly the majority of CAGWers are pointing to that, right?
-Scott
Icesat2 and ARC both show thick ice. NSIDC shows that the ice is much older than 2008. PIOMAS is smoking crack.
I hope so. If it is, then in a few years the CAGWers will eat it hardcore, LOL.
-Scott
If 2011 “beats” 2007 at all it is only going to be by a hairs’ breadth – there will be no significant difference.
The only rational outcome is to call it a draw – no continuing death spiral, but no real sign of a recovery either.
Replay has been scheduled for April- September 2012……
I see you got tricked into using the word “recovery”……
LOL! I am justly rebuked.
Only goes to show how insidious all the “warming is a bad thing” propaganda is.
aip….look at this and tell me what you think recovery means
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQoNA4GG1XGKQnls15l7IEp9PMlujdC1n-fVhCcMup7ZZggiEU
That is cruel!
Recovery to what? The normal conditions during the Holocene Optimum or the normal conditions during the Glacial Maximum?
We should even consider the Normal conditions during the Eemian interglacial!
Julienne Stroeve says:
September 12, 2011 at 2:17 pm
AndyDC, no I don’t agree. Steve chose a graph that shows what he wants to portray while ignoring all the other institutions that show either a record low for 2011 or a “tie” with 2007.
=====================================================
Record low or record high…..from what?
This is what I have a problem with……that normal line.
Normal sea level, normal ice, normal temperatures, normal CO2 levels, normal plant growth, and on and on…..
When the people advocating it’s abby-normal, define what normal is.
Take that away from them and the whole thing falls apart.
Has anyone else noticed that all of their graphs and charts just go back far enough to show their addy-normal?
Take CO2 levels, they like to brag that CO2 levels were ‘stable’ for 800,000 years…..
….right after different plants, algae, plankton, grasses, etc evolved in higher CO2 levels, and were so proficient that they lowered CO2 levels to where it became limiting to those plants.
How do we know it’s limiting? Because we know a little lower and plants would die, and we know when you increase CO2 plants grow faster.
Take away their “normal” and their entire science and agenda falls apart……..
Age of Earth = 4.5 billion years. Average human life expectancy = 75 years.
See the disconnect?
The human mind is quite simply incapable of defining “normal” as anything other than the conditions it experiences during its pathetically short existence.
A big reason IMO, why climate “science” is f**ked.
I believe arctic ocean heat content is a good proxy for the arctic sea ice extent and volume. Unlike satellite observation which began in 1979 it goes back to 1950.
From Bob Tisdale:
http://i53.tinypic.com/214s085.jpg
The OHC plot shows that satellite observation began when the OHC was at a 55 year low. A perfect example of Cherry picking. Note the OHC is in decline.
Of course it’s cherry picking….
…it’s all cherry picking
Claiming sea ice is at a record low…..can only be shown by cherry picking.