date: Tue Apr 19 16:48:28 2005
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: IPCC stuff
to: Kevin Trenberth
Kevin,
I've looked very briefly at chapters 6 and 9. I did download the others but they
have sat unopened on my laptop. Even with 6 and 9 I've only read small bits and had
brief discussions with Keith Briffa (6) and Nathan Gillett (9) as we occasionally interact
over coffee/tea/lunch breaks. They are both LAs, but it seems their CLAs are working
differently. Neither chapter was sent back to all CAs, and they haven't yet got any
of their comments back. Still going through ours - the latest lot.
Obs/model changes is one possibility but that would also have to involve 9 and 6
(if the paleo runs were involved) as well as the modelling chapters. I did look at Ch 4
on the cryosphere (the figures). They have one based on NCEP temperatures for
the Arctic (N. of 70N) in response to one their CQs !!! They also have a whole
section on Oerlemans (2005) reconstruction of global-scale temperatures from
glacier termini positions. A lot of overlap with Ch 6 here as well. A lot of
integration is going to be needed with this one.
On the issue of what else we have to contribute to, Brian Hoskins is a good choice,
but I doubt he'll do it. Agree that we don't have someone we can nicely pass this onto.
If only we had Neville Nicholls in our chapter ! I think we will likely end up doing the
SPM
and Tech Summ and the Synthesis between us. We do one each. I reckon it all depends
how good an FOD we can put together and how much that can alter when it come sto
the ZOD. Parts of our FOD will hopefully be good once we have the lengths right and
better figures. Depends also on how many comments the FOD gets - how long is a piece
of string? From my brief look over 4, 6 and 9 I reckon ours is better. The comments we
were
getting were encouraging. Mike Manton thought Ch 1 very poor, by the way.
Commitment and time are crucial, and I can't decide till after Beijing. If we can get a
sub group to take responsibility for the figures, might this help (say David P, Dave E,
Brian,
Jim R and Albert)? If this can go to safe pairs of hands, once their content and layout
have been decided, we might get more time.
Have to go home now. We'll need to work on plans for the 3 days on May 9.
Phil
At 22:57 18/04/2005, you wrote:
Hi Phil
I just talked with Susan Solomon about the forthcoming IPCC meeting.
Below somewhat confidential.
Seems like they will go ahead and we will be up on the last day to give our views on the
AR4 as a whole. This means a bit of homework to say how our chapter relates to others
and whether or not we are at odds.
Will our obs changes be related to those from models? might be one question. I have not
looked at any other chapters ZOD. Any ideas?
Seems like I will be co-chairing the inter-chapter group on obs (oceans, cryosphere,
paleo). So we will need to also prepare for that: how we integrate with snow and
glacier melt, sea level rise, sub-surface T changes, overlaps between paleo and
instrumental record, etc. Care to add to the list?
Other big questions we have to contribute to include
1) The SPM and Technical summary. Who from our chapter can do this? It needs someone
who is broad and knows the whole chapter, and probably is NOT you or me as we have too
much else to do that overlaps. Frankly I am not sure I can truly recommend anyone. So
a possible option is to use a review editor (Susan suggested Brian Hoskins). Here is my
quick take:
David P contributes, but does not have strong views and does not speak up enough.
Brian S. has the knowledge but has been disappointing in failure to interact and
contribute outside of tasks assigned.
Jim R. might be possible but not very strong
David E. has not done much or anything outside of 3.3.
Klein Tank: might be possible, but I have been disappointed thus far.
Has not grasped everything, too many things in 3.8 at odds with elsewhere.
Roxana, Matilde, Peter, Fatema, Pan Mao would be out of their depth.
2) The synthesis report. This is another troublesome item that will go on in parallel
with AR4 report and makes it tough to do both. Need broad people and ones who will
speak up and take issue with the WG2 and WG3 people who have political agendas that go
beyond the science.
Requires a commitment. You or me might be possible but will we have time?
So 4 things to think about.
Kevin
--
****************
Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)
Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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