cc: c.goodess@uea.ac.uk
date: Wed Jan 23 10:50:42 2008
from: Phil Jones
subject: The paper I was talking about
to: "Jake Hacker"
Jake,
This paper is still in draft form, but I will submit soon. It is mostly about
China, so ignore that. What is relevant is the parts about London and Vienna
at the beginning - and Figures 1-3 and Tables 1-2.
Bottom line is that central London does have a UHI of about 1.5 deg C.
This however doesn't change over the last 45 years. The rate of
warming at all the London sites is the same.
1.5 is the average UHI, but it can be up to nearly 5 but as low as 0
on some days - see the distribution histograms.
As I say in the paper the 1.5 isn't wholly a UHI. I reckon some is due
to sites where central London is would have been warmer than Rothamsted
and Gatwick without London being there.
When the UHI came into existence is gradually from Medieval
times through to the 19th century. I don't think its magnitude has changed since
then. It clearly hasn't since 1960.
Whether it will change with climate change is the issue. I don't think it will.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------